000
FXUS61 KCTP 061152
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
752 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH
MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING THEIR FIRST FROST OR FREEZE OF THE
SEASON. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FAIR WEATHER INTO WEDNESDAY.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND GULF MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS COVER ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA AT 06Z AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SE. RADAR HAS A RING AROUND IT AND A FEW UPSTREAM SITES ARE
REPORTING VERY LIGHT RAIN...SO THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OUT
OF THIS MID DECK THIS MORNING...BUT MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY. NOT
EXPECTING ANYONE TO GET MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY OVERHEAD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BLASTS THROUGH UPSTATE
NY. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR IN ALL LAYERS OF THE ATMOS.
BY 00Z...ALMOST EVERYONE WILL BE CLEAR...WITH A SLIVER OF CLOUDS
ALONG THE MASON-DIXON LINE HEADED TO DIXIE. AS THE SUNSHINE GETS
TO MOST PLACES BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS GET
UP NEAR SEASONAL NORMS EVERYWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
COLD WILL BE THE STORY FOR TONIGHT. HAVE COLLABORATED APPROPRIATE
FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...AS
WE EXPECT LOW PWATS TO RESULT IN CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES AND SFC
ANTICYCLONE TO PROVIDE LIGHT/NIL WIND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. MUCH OF NRN PA WILL GO BELOW
FREEZING AND MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SINK INTO THE MID
30S. SOME LOW SPOTS AND TYPICAL COLD SINKS LIKE KTHV AND KSEG MAY
EVEN DROP TO/BELOW FREEZING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THAT
POSSIBILITY TO POST A FREEZE WARNING FOR THOSE LOCATIONS QUITE
YET. SOME UPPER 30S MAY BE FOUND ON THE HILLTOPS...ESP IN THE
LAURELS...AND THE URBAN AREAS IN THE SE MAY ALSO STAY WARM ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE FROST...BUT THE SUBURBS AND RURAL AREAS OF THEIR
RESPECTIVE COUNTIES SHOULD GET INTO THE M30S.

FOUR COUNTIES IN THE NRN MTS HAD A HARD FREEZE 2 NIGHTS AGO...AND
NO FURTHER FROST/FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THEM THIS
SEASON.

TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A VERY SUNNY DAY THAT WILL ALLOW A HEALTHY
30-35F TEMP REBOUND. MAXES WILL BE CLOSE TO TODAY/S NUMS...AND
MAYBE EVEN A BIT MILDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SHOWERS MAY
ENCROACH UPON THE WESTERN ZONES BY LATE WED OR WED NIGHT AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE AND GULF MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD. SOME
UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS RANGE AS GFS AND NAM
SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE RESULTANT
QPF.

CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE ON THU AS WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
KEPT CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. AN UPPER LOW THAT PINCHES OFF FROM
THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH WILL THEN SLIDE NWRD LATER IN THE WEEK AND
MAY CREATE RAIN...ESP OVER THE EAST...IN THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME.
THEN A FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE LATE NEXT MON INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IR IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD MID-DECK CIGS ACROSS MOST CENTRAL PA
AIRFIELDS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES BEGINNING
TO FORM ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND SLIDE SOUTH. OVERALL THOUGH
WE WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST TUE/WED PROVIDING PROLONGED VFR
CONDS AND LGT WINDS. DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND REDUCED VSBYS TO MVFR/IFR CONDS AFT 06Z TUE AND
AGAIN AFT 06Z WED.

EARLY THUR/FRI A FRONTAL BNDRY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
COULD BRING LLVL MOISTURE AND A CHC FOR SHRA AND REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ004-012-
017-018-037-041-042.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR PAZ019-
024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...BEACHLER

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion